A survey conducted late in 2013 has indicated a huge drop in support for the ANC.
Ipsos South Africa undertakes a Pulse of the People™ study every six months and keeps close tabs on the opinions of voters. A randomly selected sample of South Africans of voting age (18+) were asked which party they would support if there were an election the next day.
Respondents then filled in their own choices on a “ballot paper” – making this a secret vote. Looking at the results from the November 2008 poll (about six months before the 2009 election) and the results from the November 2013 poll (about six months before the 2014 election) it is clear that the overall support of the ANC fell with ten percentage points, from 63% in November 2008 to 53% in November 2013.
Political uncertainty, leadership issues, the aftermath of the Marikana shootings, the issues about Nkandla, service delivery protests, the forming of new political parties and a host of other reasons could have contributed to this important finding.
Some of the new political parties (EFF and AGANG) benefited from the support moving away from the ANC, but the single largest group (7%) who did not choose a specific party in November 2013, indicated that they would not vote.
A further 6% refused to answer and 5% did not know which party they will choose.